Conditional Revenue / Risk Model

This model builds a revenue or cost projection based on potential future cash flows (opportunities or risks). In the model, we build a number of potential cash flows (or costs). For each item, there is a distribution of potential outcomes; and a probability that the event will or will not occur.

Calculating the model, we generate a distribution of potential future revenue (or risk).

In addition to the main projections, we can create additional projections for alternative scenarios. In a risk model, for example, this might reflect the potential risk reduction if we take specific mitigation steps.

In a revenue model, alternative scenarios might reflect changes to opportunities in response to external market factors; or they might reflect different opportunities based on specific marketing and sales efforts.

Guide to this Application

There's a walk-through guide to help you understand the application and how it works available here:

Conditional Revenue / Risk Walkthrough

Two last notes: use control-Z to undo changes; and if you accidentally reload the page, your data will be saved.

File Options

Load or save files to your desktop, or clear the model to restart.

Load ModelSave ModelReset Model

Example Models

Example 1: Conditional Revenue Opportunities

Random Number Generator

Set a seed value for the random number generator and re-run the simulation model. This can be useful if you want to get reproducible results.

A seed value of zero (0) will use the current system time.

Please note: values in the tables and charts below are simplified to two significant digits. See the Data tab for precise values.

Result Distribution